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2011 NCAA Baseball Tournament Bracket: Most Ridiculous In-depth Analysis and Regionals Predictions

by Quentin Ybarra, College World Series of Omaha

Here we go, college baseball fans! The field of 64 is set for the 2011 NCAA Baseball Tournament and play begins on Friday, June 3rd.

To see the bracket in a separate window, click here.

As expected, many of the favorites are familiar with Omaha; seven of the eight national seeds played in Rosenblatt Stadium within the last three years.

The University of Virginia received the number one overall seed after winning the ACC tournament. Last week the Cavaliers lost their #1 national ranking but were pushed back to the top by winning their conference tournament and getting some help from a barely .500 Georgia team upsetting South Carolina early in the SEC tournament.

2011 NCAA Tournament Top 8 National Seeds

*(last week's rankings by Baseball America, National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association)

1. Virginia (5, 4)
2. Florida (3, 5)
3. North Carolina (12, 8 )
4. South Carolina (1, 1) 2010 CWS champs
5. Florida State (7, 9)
6. Vanderbilt (4, 2) zero CWS appearances
7. Texas (2, 3)
8. Rice (16, 15)

2010 CWS Teams - Where are they now?

Here’s the status of the eight teams who reached Omaha last year.

Three 2010 CWS teams -- Florida, South Carolina, and Florida State -- received national seeds in this year’s tournament.

Four others -- UCLA, TCU, Arizona State, and Clemson -- were among the top 16 teams and will play host in Regionals this year.

Oklahoma received a second seed in the Fort Worth Regional behind TCU.

FUN FACT: The greatest number of 2010 CWS teams that could possibly return to Omaha this year is SIX.
(Oklahoma’s and TCU’s paths cross in the Regional round. South Carolina and Clemson paths meet in the Super Regional round.)

2011 NCAA Baseball Regionals

Let’s take a look at each regional now. You can use these links to jump down to the ones you're most interested in.

UVA Regional
UCLA Regional
TCU Regional
Rice Regional
Florida State Regional
Texas A&M Regional
Clemson Regional
South Carolina Regional
Florida Regional
Georgia Tech Regional
Arizona State Regional
Texas Regional
Vanderbilt Regional
Oregon State Regional
Cal State Fullerton Regional
UNC Regional

UVA Regional - Charlottesville, Virginia

No. 1 Virginia (49-9)
No. 2 East Carolina (39-19)
No. 3 St. John’s (35-20)
No. 4 Navy (33-23-1)

Virginia is the clear favorite to win this with great pitching (Danny Hultzen (10-3, 1.59 ERA), Will Roberts (10-1, 1.78 ERA), and Tyler Wilson (7-0, 2.41 ERA)) in addition to a dangerous offense led by David Coleman (.374 average), John Hicks (.338, 19 doubles, and six home runs), and Steven Proscia (.333, 17 doubles, seven home runs, and 53 RBI). The Cavaliers did fall once to East Carolina earlier this season, but is coming off consecutive victories over the overall No. 3 seed North Carolina and the overall No. 5 seed Florida State.

UCLA Regional - Los Angeles, CA

No. 1 UCLA (33-22)
No. 2 Fresno St. (40-14)
No. 3 UC Irvine (39-16)
No. 4 San Francisco (31-23)

UCLA jumped teams like Miami (FL), Oklahoma, Southern Miss, and arguably some others to land a Regional site. By blowing out Arizona St. 10-3, and 7-0 in the first two games of a three game set, UCLA grabbed the nation’s attention saying we’re back! The potential for a CWS run is there again as the Bruins bring back both Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole from the best staff in Omaha in 2010. The concern for UCLA … Cole isn’t the same pitcher. 11-4 in 2010, Cole’s record is 6-7 on the season, but coming off a quality eight inning outing against Arizona State, the big righty may have turned the corner. However, Bauer has become one of, if not the best pitcher in the nation. He’s sporting a 1.27 ERA through 127.2 innings highlighted by 187 Ks, and has gone the distance in nine of his 15 starts… Filthy.

Fresno State has been bouncing around in college baseball conversation all year. But it’s hard to say what they’ll do in the postseason. The Bulldog’s only impressive wins were back in February when they won two one-run games from Oregon State. Fresno has a premier arm in Greg Gonzalez, who is a perfect 11-0 in his 15 starts. Dusty Robinson owns the big bat with a .318 average in addition to his 20 doubles and 16 home runs.

UC Irvine to me is the second best team in this regional. They’ve beaten tournament teams such as Connecticut, Cal St. Fullerton, and even UCLA (by a score of 2-1). Jordan Fox, Brian Hernandez, and Drew Hillman are all hovering around a .350 average, and Matt Summers is a strong ace at 10-2 with a 1.74 ERA in 15 starts.

I predict UCLA to come out of this to face UVA in the Super Regional, but it’ll take an if-necessary game to do so.

TCU Regional - Fort Worth, TX

TCU needed a Mountain West tournament title to ensure a seed, but after winning nine of their final 10 regular season games the Horned Frogs lost to New Mexico twice in the conference tourney and fell out of the conversation.

No. 1 TCU (42-17)
No. 2 Oklahoma (41-17)
No. 3 Dallas Baptist (39-17)
No. 4 Oral Roberts (36-20)

TCU and Oklahoma were in consideration for a national seed up until the final days of the season so it would be easy to overlook another team in this region… but not so fast!

Dallas Baptist has a pretty impressive portfolio. With wins over Oklahoma State, Rice, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and a 2-0 record against the Horned Frogs of TCU, don’t be surprised if the little-known Patriots cause some uproar. Jason Krizan leads the nation with 97 base hits and 37 doubles will surely make Fort Worth exciting.

While I expect an upset of either Oklahoma to open the Regional, or TCU a day or two after, I don’t think Dallas Baptist has enough pitching to win the Regional. Oklahoma’s offense hits the same incredible average as Dallas Baptist (.316) but the Sooners have more quality bats throughout the lineup with 10 players with at least 100 at bats hitting .300 plus.

TCU’s offense isn’t as impressive as Dallas Baptist’s or Oklahoma’s but they do have a solid lineup. More importantly, they have two pitchers that can propel them deep into the tourney in Kyle Winkler and Matt Purke. Winkler is 8-2 in 12 starts and holds a 1.40 ERA. Purke was outstanding as a freshman a year ago, and was the consensus Freshman of the Year thanks to a 16-0 record in 18 starts and 142 Ks in only 116.1 innings. In 2011 he is 5-1 in a limited 10 starts thanks to a shoulder injury midway through the season. In his 47.2 innings he has 55 strikeouts and has compiled a 1.51 ERA. He’s back, and he is dominant once again.

To me, Purke and Winkler will be the difference maker and send TCU to the Super Regionals. As much as I’d love to see the Patriots become this year’s Cinderella, I don’t see that happening.

Rice Regional - Houston, TX

No. 1 Rice (41-19)
No. 2 Baylor (29-26)
No. 3 California (31-20)
No. 4 Alcorn State (27-28)

Rice received the eighth national seed, but with that drew two teams they lost to during the regular season. Baylor and Cal have both defeated the Owls in extra innings, but are both quite inconsistent.

Even though they aren’t a dominant No. 1 seed, Rice has the edge. Head coach Wayne Graham has led Rice to the CWS seven times since 1997, and has a good opportunity to reach the Super Regionals this year.

This region has three fairly average teams without much power or elite pitching. Rice’s Anthony Rendon (.327) and Baylor’s Max Mundy (.329), and Cal’s Tony Renda (.330) are the biggest bats in this regional.

Cal’s Erik Johnson comes in as the pitcher with the best statistics, (6-3 with a 2.08 ERA), but Rice has two solid starters in Austin Kubiza (6-4, 2.33 ERA) and Matthew Reckling (4-1, 3.07 ERA) that will help the Owls move on.

Florida State Regional - Tallahassee, FL

No. 1 Florida State (42-17)
No. 2 Central Florida (38-21)
No. 3 Alabama (33-26)
No. 4 Bethune-Cookman (36-23)
(Winner to play winner of College Station Regional)

The Seminoles are in pursuit of their 21st CWS appearance. The No. 4 overall seed is led by five hitters above .300 including James Ramsey (.350, 10 HR, and 62 RBI), Jayce Boyd (.333, four triples, five HR, and 53 RBI), and Mike McGee (.333, 10 HR, and 51 RBI). On the mound, Sean Gilmartin was one of the best across the nation while facing quality ACC opponents. Gilmartin has an 11-1 record and a 1.52 ERA through 15 starts.

Florida State is the favorite, but look out for Central Florida. The Knights have not only beaten the Seminoles this year, but they swept Florida and took two of three from Rice in the regular season as well. Florida State is a great postseason team (up until the CWS as we all know – zero titles in 20 appearances), but this regional should be on your upset radar. D.J. Hicks (.343 with 11 doubles and 13 HR) and Jonathan Griffin (.332 with 16 doubles and 18 HR) are as dangerous as any offensive duo in college baseball. But, without a true ace in the rotation, UCF will rely on the bats to produce a possible upset.

Texas A&M Regional - College Station, TX

Texas A&M did everything in their power to receive the final seed, but because their four consecutive wins leading to a Big 12 tournament title did not include victories over Texas or Oklahoma State, the Aggies didn’t get the big win to put them over the edge.

No. 1 Texas A&M (42-18)
No. 2 Arizona (36-19)
No. 3 Seton Hall (33-23)
No. 4 Wright State (36-17)
(Winner to play winner of Tallahassee Regional)

A&M swept the Big 12 tourney, they’ve won 11 of their last 13 and are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Arizona is a solid squad, but haven’t won an impressive series all year long. Texas A&M is a contender to reach the CWS and make a run once there. Led by a solid three-man rotation featuring John Stilson (5-2 in 13 starts, 1.68 ERA), Michael Wacha (7-3 in 15 starts, 2.37 ERA), and Ross Stripling (12-2, 2.41 ERA) the Aggies have the depth on the mound to be one of the most dangerous teams in the next few weeks. Tyler Naquin (.379, 89 hits, 17 doubles, and 6 triples) and Krey Bratsen (.339, 80 hits, and 3 triples) lead the Aggies offensively.

Without a key series win, Arizona may have to ride Bobby Rinard through the Regional if they want to advance. Rinard (hitting .456 in 57 at bats) went 8-10 on the weekend in a sweep of Washington and was named Pac-10 Player of the Week.

Clemson Regional - Clemson, SC

No. 1 Clemson (41-18)
No. 2 Connecticut (41-17-1)
No. 3 Coastal Carolina (41-18)
No. 4 Sacred Heart (34-21)
(Winner to play winner of Columbia Regional)

Clemson arguably has a better team this year than the CWS team a year ago. While Coastal Carolina and Connecticut bring in impressive records, Clemson’s success in the ACC is telling of their potential. Brad Miller leads the team with a batting average of .419. Expect Clemson’s offense (.319 team average) to push the Tigers into a 2010 CWS semifinal rematch with the Gamecocks of South Carolina.

South Carolina Regional - Columbia, SC

No. 1 South Carolina (45-14)
No. 2 Stetson (41-18)
No. 3 North Carolina State (34-25)
No. 4 Georgia Southern (36-24)
(Winner to play winner of Clemson Regional)

South Carolina returns many starters from its 2010 National Championship team and will not be eliminated in this round. Stetson has played competitive baseball throughout the year up until this last week in which they lost four of their final five. Even without the 2010 CWS Most Outstanding Player Jackie Bradley Jr., South Carolina is a favorite to return to Omaha.

The Gamecock’s pitching staff is headed by junior lefty Michael Roth who was outstanding a year ago in Omaha against both Clemson and UCLA in just his first two starts of the season. This season Roth has built a 11-3 record with a 1.17 ERA in 15 starts. South Carolina has been successful spreading out the rest of the starts to underclassmen Forrest Koumas (6-1) and Colby Holmes (6-3).

Christian Walker, Brady Thomas, and Evan Marzilli and return for South Carolina from the 2010 CWS All-Tournament Team. Walker has been tremendous in 2011 with a .357 average while leading the Gamecocks in average, runs, hits, RBI, slugging percentage and more.

Florida Regional - Gainesville, FL

No. 1 Florida (45-16)
No. 2 Miami (FL) (36-21)
No. 3 Jacksonville (36-22)
No. 4 Manhattan (34-17)
(Winner to play winner of Atlanta Regional)

Sometimes an in-state rivalry can cause a team to play beyond its usual level. Will this be the case when Miami (FL) meets the No. 2 overall seed Florida? Nope. The Gators have already beaten the Canes three times and struggled in doing so only once. Florida’s young 2010 CWS team is a year older and year hungrier. I don’t see a speed bump before Omaha for the Gators.

Florida has six regular starters hitting above .300 led by Mike Zunio (.367, 81 hits, 19 doubles, 15 HR, and 59 RBI). The three main starters for Florida have a combined record of 24-6. Hudson Randall is 9-3 in 15 starts with a 2.25 ERA, Karsen Whitson is unbeaten at 7-0 with a 2.53 ERA, and Brian Johnson is 8-3 with a 3.66 ERA through 15 starts.

Georgia Tech Regional - Atlanta, GA

No. 1 Georgia Tech (40-19)
No. 2 Southern Mississippi (39-17)
No. 3 Mississippi State (34-23)
No. 4 Austin Peay (33-22)
(Winner to play winner of Gainesville Regional)

Georgia Tech is a solid team that many expected to be in Omaha a year ago. While they aren’t as highly touted this season, they have the talent to make some noise. Kyle Wren, Jake Davies, and Matt Skole lead the offense with averages around .350 and double digits in two-baggers. I expect Georgia Tech to advance behind a .304 hitting offense and one of the best ACC pitching staffs (2.84 overall ERA) headed by Mark Pope (11-4 with five complete games) and Buck Farmer (10-3, 2.99 ERA).

Arizona State Regional - Tempe, AZ

Arizona State seemed like a lock if they won two of three against UCLA in their season finale series. What happened? The Sun Devils lost the first two of the series by a combined 14 runs.

No. 1 Arizona State (39-16)
No. 2 Arkansas (38-20)
No. 3 Charlotte (42-14)
No. 4 New Mexico (20-39)
(Winner to play winner of Austin Regional)

Arizona State and Arkansas both played in the 2009 CWS and are set to face off in this regional final. Arizona State dropped two games to UCLA this weekend or would have certainly received a national seed. The Sun Devils look to reach Omaha for the fourth time in the past five seasons. Seven starters hit above .300 for the Sun Devils, but they lack a dominating force on the mound. Brady Rodgers (8-4, 2.90 ERA), Kramer Champlin (8-3, 3.13 ERA), and Jake Barrett (7-4, 4.14 ERA) haven’t been spectacular throughout the season, but can provide quality innings and give the offense a chance to outscore their opponents. Offensively Joey DeMichele (.371, 6 triples, 39 RBI), Johnny Ruettiger (.329, 35 RBI), and Riccio Torrez (.314, 17 doubles, 46 RBI) are the run producers.

Arkansas only has two hitters above .300, led by Dominic Ficociell with a .351 average, but behind the arm of DJ Baxendale the Razorbacks can play with anyone. On the year Baxendale has compiled a 9-2 record and a stingy 1.75 ERA. While he is clearly Arkansas’ ace, the Razorbacks turn to four average pitchers to manage the remaining starts. It looks as if Arizona State’s bats will be the difference if these two teams meet.

Texas Regional - Austin, TX

No. 1 Texas (43-15)
No. 2 Texas State (40-21)
No.3 Kent. State (43-15)
No. 4 Princeton (23-22)
(Winner to play winner of Tempe Regional)

Although the Longhorns didn’t win their conference tournament, they finished the regular season on a streak to place them atop the conference. They’ve beaten Texas State twice on the regular season and have a fairly easy path to a Super Regional showdown with Arizona State.

The Longhorns have the best team ERA in the nation at 2.21, and Taylor Jungmann, who is not only 13-0 in 15 starts, but also holds a rude 0.95 ERA. Batters are hitting .159 against him through 122.2 innings pitched. Jungmann also has pitched five complete games this season. The next two most used arms are also impressive. Sam Stafford has started 14 games and has a 1.70 ERA despite just a 5-2 records, and Cole Green is 7-3 through 16 starts with a 3.20 ERA.

Offensively the Longhorns rely on Erich Weiss, Brandon Loy, and Tant Shepherd. All three have started in every game this year and are the only players on the team with over 100 total bases. Loy leads the team with 20 doubles, followed by Shepherd’s 17. Weiss leads in RBI with 38 followed by Shepherd’s 35.

Vanderbilt Regional - Nashville, TN

No. 1 Vanderbilt (47-10)
No. 2 Oklahoma State (35-23)
No. 3 Troy (42-17)
No. 4 Belmont (36-24)
(Winner to play winner of Corvallis Regional)

Vanderbilt, despite having much regular season success has yet to reach a CWS in school history. As the No. 6 overall seed they have a pretty good shot this year. With a decent but not great Oklahoma State team as the next best in the Nashville Regional, and a Corvallis Regional that is up for grabs, the Commodores have to like where they sit.

Vandy has nice consistent bats and three solid arms, a combination to be feared by everyone. Aaron Westlake (.356, 16 doubles, 13 HR, and 44 RBI) and Jason Esposito (.352, 81 hits, 21 doubles, 7HR, and 51 RBI) are the best hitters on the team, but Anthony Gomez (.341), Conrad Gregor (.336), Tony Kemp (.335), Riley Reynolds (.329) and more round out one of the best lineups in baseball.

The rotation is tough too. Sonny Gray has tossed three complete games in 15 starts, has a 10-3 record with a 2.12 ERA. Garvin Grayson’s record is 12-1 with a 2.35 ERA, and Taylor Hill has a 4-1 record through 15 starts and a 3.00 ERA.

If the Cowboys of Oklahoma State have a chance to upset Vanderbilt, they’ll have to come up with the extra base hits that have led them to success this year. Oklahoma State has nine players with at least 10 doubles (130 team total). Mike Strong (3.61) and Brad Propst (3.66) will need to pitch their best games of the season to keep the Vanderbilt offense, which averages nearly seven runs per game, at bay.

Oregon State Regional - Corvallis, OR

Oregon State has been struggling and went from a possible top five team to barely grabbing a regional site. The Beavers have lost five straight and six of their last seven games… all to teams that failed to make the tournament cut.

No. 1 Oregon State (38-17)
No. 2 Creighton (44-14)
No. 3 Georgia (31-30)
No. 4 Arkansas Little Rock (24-32)
(Winner to play winner of Nashville Regional)

Omaha’s own Creighton Blue Jays have a real opportunity to advance out of this region. Georgia barely snuck in the tournament thanks to a late upsets of then No. 1 South Carolina and No. 3 Florida in the SEC tournament, but on the year have been less than impressive.

Creighton has two starting pitchers that could play a significant role in this Regional. Jonas Dufek (11-1, 2.17 ERA in 15 starts) and Ty Blach (10-2, 2.72 ERA in 17 starts) will be the deciding factor for Creighton. If they can keep games low scoring the Blue Jays have a chance to advance.

Oregon State is coming into the NCAA tournament having lost five consecutive games. The Beavers have a dull offense and are at a high risk of being upset. But, it is impossible to ignore the recent success Oregon State has had in the NCAA tournament, winning back to back national titles while hosting a Regional but not receiving a national seed.

All things considered this site could go to any of the top three seeds. Georgia just beat two of the best teams in the nation so I am going to predict that UGA … excuse me … Big Bad Russ will advance to the Super Regional.

Cal State Fullerton Regional - Fullerton, CA

Cal St. Fullerton has won seven of their last eight games, but lost a must win game against Cal St. Northridge on Friday. More than likely, if they had pulled out even a tight victory they would be in the top eight. Instead, Rice took care of their business by winning the C-USA tournament after dropping their last two regular season games.

No. 1 Cal St. Fullerton (40-15)
No. 2 Stanford (32-20)
No. 3 Kansas State (36-23)
No. 4 Illinois (28-25)
(Winner to play winner of Chapel Hill Regional)

Cal St. Fullerton lost one game to Cal St. Northridge over the weekend, which is probably the only reason they did not get a top eight seed. Regardless, they’ve been a consistent team throughout the season with quality wins over TCU, Arizona State, UCLA, and UC Irvine.

The Titans’ rotation has three starters with ERAs under 2.50. Noe Ramirez (8-3, 1.74 ERA) is the ace of the staff, and has been a premier pitcher since his freshman season at Fullerton. The team’s ERA is 2.85 opposed to their opponents 4.77. Michael Lorenzen is hitting .350 to lead Fullerton, followed by Richy Pedroza at .346.

Stanford is the main threat to the Titans in this regional. The Cardinal has beaten three of the top eight seeds (Rice, Texas, and Vanderbilt), but lack a premier pitcher.

UNC Regional - Chapel Hill, North Carolina

No. 1 North Carolina (45-14)
No. 2 Florida International (40-18-1)
No. 3 James Madison (40-17)
No. 4 Maine (32-22)
Winner plays winner of Fullerton Regional

North Carolina made a late surge including a sweep of overall No. 1 Virginia to earn the No. 3 seed. I don’t see much competition for the Tar Heels in the Regional, especially playing at home where UNC is 31-3 on the season.

Patrick Johnson (11-1, 2.56 ERA) has emerged as the UNC No. 1 starter. Behind his are Kent Emanuel (6-1, 2.88 ERA), Chris Munnelly (6-5, 3.99 ERA), and Cody Stiles (4-0, 2.43 ERA).

Florida International has only one major win this year and that was a 2-1 victory over Texas A&M early in the season. Garrett Wittles, the mad man who had a 56-game hitting streak snapped in the season opener this year, was productive for the Golden Panthers again in 2011 with a .348 average and 86 hits. FIU also has Pablo Bermudez (.373) and Jeremy Patton (.371, 53 RBI), hitters who could make things interesting in Chapel Hill, but in the end UNC will advance.

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